Gaming Numbers

   The international trade deficit is rising, the federal budget deficit is rising, and the government will reach its borrowing limit on March 16.
   But does all this mean the U.S. is about to stumble into bankruptcy? No, because despite what some politicians warn of, "deficits don't matter," to quote Dick Cheney, the former vice president.
   The Commerce Department reported that the trade deficit in January stood at $48.5 billion, a 9.6 percent rise from December. Imports rose to $240.6 billion from $235.4, and exports increased to $192.1 billion from $191.0 billion.
   And the Census Bureau, part of the Commerce Department, pointed out that exports and imports were both at a three-year high. The top exports of goods were automotive parts and accessories, passenger cars, and pharmaceuticals.
   Top exports of services were for travel, business services, and charges for the use of intellectual property.
   Imports were led by passenger cars, crude oil, and cell phones and other household goods.
   Simply put, this happened because Americans buy more stuff than we sell, mostly because we have more money.
   The reverse, selling more stuff than we buy, would require that we make more stuff, in excess of what we need. But the beneficiaries of that arrangement would not be factory workers, who get paid the same hourly wage whether they produce enough for domestic consumption or for export, but senior management, who gain extra profit from increased overseas sales.
   This is not to say that a trade surplus is a bad thing. But it is to say that it benefits a few, not the many. Likewise, trade deficits harm that same few, not the factory floor many.
   Over time, moreover, international trade payments always balance. If they don't, that means somebody is cheating. In addition, closing borders and raising tariffs only closes markets, and both sides suffer.
   That doesn't stop the current administration from whining about the imbalance, since their emphasis on "America First" translates to a winner-take-all business.
   In announcing the trade figures, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said the data shows "there is much work to be done." He added that "correcting this imbalance is an important step," and the government "will renegotiate bad trade deals" in defense of "all hard-working Americans."
   That, however, reflects the same conservative mercantile winner-take-all attitude, and tries to extend it to wage earners as well as senior management traders.
   Separately, the Congressional Budget Office noted that for the first time since 2009, the federal budget deficit rose in relation to total output. And over the next ten years, deficits will continue to rise, partly due to "increased spending for retirement and health care programs targeted to older people, as well as rising interest payments on the government's debt, accompanied by only modest growth in revenue."
   So the current administration wants to eliminate the Affordable Care Act, cut taxes, and spend lots more on the military.
   Meanwhile, the Treasury Department will top out on its ability to issue bonds as a way of raising money to fund government projects. Unless it uses "extraordinary measures" to continue raising cash. Even so, these measures could be exhausted by autumn.
   Does this mean the government will go bankrupt? Probably not, because Treasury bonds and notes are typically bought mostly by Americans, so in a sense we owe that money to ourselves.
   Nonetheless, all these negative numbers provide plenty of ammunition for conservatives to hammer the need for spending reductions, less regulation and fewer taxes, in the hope that all this freedom will encourage spectacular economic growth.
   But the CBO also forecast that growth over the next two years will stay close to the modest rate of about 2 percent since the end of the Great Recession in 2009.
   Nevertheless, the CBO noted, economic growth will be faster than growth in potential. Result: More jobs, higher wages and some upward pressure on inflation and interest rates.
   All in all, things look pretty good. Unless the new guy screws things up. Even so, the Federal Reserve will monitor everything to make sure things don't go wild. And Congress, which traditionally also cherishes its independence, may block some of the new guy's stranger plans.