Friday, March 10, 2017

Make the White House Real Again

   What's all this about lost and stolen jobs being hijacked to other countries even as the U.S. economy totters on the brink of catastrophe?
   That was the campaign rant for months. Now, 50 days into the new administration, here's a reality check:
   Over the past three months, job gains have averaged 209,000 per month, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. In February, U.S. employers hired 235,000 workers, as the nationwide unemployment rate posted 4.7 percent, down from 4.9 percent a year ago.
   Coupled with other recent reports that overall economic growth has been steady, and Americans continue to buy more imported stuff than U.S. firms export, all signs point to a healthy and growing economy.
   All this also means the Federal Reserve is likely to raise its key interest rate when its Open Market Committee meets next week, as its way of preventing a too-strong economic surge.
   Ironically, these continuing signs of a healthy and growing economy put the Trump Administration in a bind. After months of campaigning on dire warnings of an economic apocalypse, the White House now can claim credit for rescuing America and making it great again, after just a few weeks in office.
   Press Secretary Sean Spicer led his daily press briefing with the news of healthy job growth and low unemployment, making the point that this was just 50 days since Donald Trump was inaugurated, on January 20.
   As if he was personally responsible for February's good news.
   But the reality is that this is part of a continuing economic recovery that goes back ten years, after the Great Recession that took place during the last Republican administration under President George W. Bush, and the recovery under a Democrat, President Barack Obama.
   But while correlation is not necessarily causation, it's also true that once is an accident, twice is a coincidence, and three times or more is a pattern. A brief look at history shows that economic downturns occur more often during a Republican Administration than when a Democrat occupies the Oval Office.
   Not that this is a prediction, but if the current president succeeds in his announced plans to cut taxes and increase spending, it doesn't take a wizard to see a potential problem.

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