Brexit Bust

   The U.S. economy continues its slow recovery, according to most major data diviners, but forecasters seem reluctant to hazard a guess on the effect of a breakup of the European Union, both economic and political.
   Already, Brexit monitors see many problems if the United Kingdom leaves, beginning with the effect on the island nations themselves. The problems start with border issues in Ireland, which will stay in the EU while the Six Counties of Northern Ireland, still part of the United Kingdom, leave.
   Other observers wonder what barriers will go up between Britain and the Continent. There's no need to build a wall -- the English Channel has been there all along -- but trade and tourism will surely take a hit.
   On this side of the pond, economists have charted a slow but steady improvement in economic performance even as they add cautionary notes for the future.
  Several regional banks in the Federal Reserve System, for example, have posted comments on just that issue, even as the Fed's Board of Governors in Washington warns of potential negative offshore winds slowing American growth potential.
   In a larger sense, Britain leaving the European Union would be like Canada canceling its membership in the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), which has been in place for several decades and makes for easier commerce among its members. Or if the U.S. left NAFTA.
   Looked at another way, what would happen if California decided to go its own way rather than remain a member of the United States of America?  A California cleavage, however, would be a major disaster for the Constitution, and could bring on an economic civil war.