Sunday, August 7, 2016

Rate Reality

   "Onward and upward," say the data devotees of the U.S. economy.
   "We're doing OK," says the Federal Reserve, America's central bank, "but don't start the party yet."
   "What party?" comes the question from other major central banks around the world. "We're still sending out invitations, but nobody wants them."

   The latest measures of economic health from U.S. agencies see a slow, steady recovery from the Great Recession, but there's no sign of a boom, so the Fed continues to push its program of easy borrowing as a way of encouraging faster growth, and it isn't ready to tap on the fiscal brakes.
   Around the world, however, central banks are trimming interest rates even more, to encourage more borrowing and spending for economic prosperity.
   The Bank of England just cut its key interest rate to 0.25 percent, saying the vote to pull the United Kingdom out of the European Union and a consequent drop in its growth forecast has caused too much uncertainty. This was the first change in the British central bank's rate policy in seven years.
   The Bank of Japan already has posted a negative interest rate of -0.1 percent, meaning it will pay borrowers to take their money.
   And the Australia central bank just reduced its key interest to a record low of 1.5 percent.
  
   So while the $18 trillion U.S. economy is relatively healthy compared to the rest of the world, it's not as strong as it could be. That means if problems worsen and spread in other major countries, the U.S. may not be strong enough to hold up everyone else, and is just as likely to follow into another recession.
   Meanwhile, American employers added 255,000 jobs last month, and unemployment held at 4.9 percent, as those workers seeking jobs found them.
   And on Monday, Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump is scheduled to present details of his plan to rescue the country from what he believes is a staggering economy with a progam of deregulation and tax cuts, also known as trickle down economics. Will it work? Stay tuned.

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