Things are picking up for economies around the world, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), but uncertainty about the incoming U.S. administration spins "a wide dispersion of possible outcomes."
Globally, economic growth will be about 3 percent, the IMF estimated, similar to the rate predicted last October, growth in the U.S. at some 2 percent, also similar to previous estimates.
However, "this forecast is particularly uncertain" because of changes in policy under the new administration. Moreover, the forecast "assumes a fiscal stimulus" as the incoming government increases government spending.
Whether that actually happens, however, is another question, since many of the people named by President-elect Donald Trump have urged reductions in government spending.
Trump himself, during the election campaign, predicted economic growth of as much as 7 percent. Moreover, he also promised increased government spending coupled with lower tax rates.
Whether this revival of trickle-down economics, which assumes savings at the top will generate improvements in lower segments of society and the economy, will actually work has yet to be shown.
And a sudden burst in the growth rate from 2 percent to 7 percent is more likely to inflate a national bubble that can only burst from its sudden spurt.
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