Tuesday, January 24, 2017

On the Other Hand ...

   Economic growth will be slower over the next ten years than it was in the past, largely because fewer workers will be available, according to the director of the Congressional Budget Office, Keith Hall.
   Meanwhile, American output will expand at a 2.1 percent rate over the next two years, a bit faster than the 1.8 percent rise last year.
   "We expect that growth to boost employment, virtually eliminate the remaining slack in the economy, and drop the unemployment rate to 4.4 percent by the fourth quarter of 2018," Hall said.
   Later, Gross Domestic Product (GDP, or total output of goods and services), will fade to an average annual rate of 1.9 percent, he said.
   However, deficits will increase, thereby driving up federal debt, according to a new CBO study released the same day as Hall's remarks. These annual deficits, the study said, will result from growth in spending for retirement and health care programs, especially Social Security and Medicare, plus rising interest payments on government debt as well as "only moderate" growth in revenue.
   Hall stressed that the CBO projections were prepared before the inauguration of President Donald Trump, and the estimates "do not include any effects of executive orders" issued in the past several days.
   Trump has called for strong cuts in government spending, along with reductions in taxes, which would decrease government revenue.
   All things considered, Hall emphasized that CBO projections are based on assumptions that current laws governing taxes and spending don't change.
   Even so, "in would still not be possible to predict budgetary and economic outcomes" because many other factors are not known and are uncertain.
   But if fewer workers are available, that will put upward pressure on wages as well as encourage more immigration by those looking for jobs.
   Separately, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that unemployment rates in December were lower in ten states, higher in only one, and stable in the rest. Payroll employment decreased in just five states, rose in three, and unchanged in the rest.
  Also, median weekly earnings of the nation's 111.3 million full-time wage and salary workers were $849 in the fourth quarter of 2016, 2.9 percent higher than a year earlier.
   Go figure. Unemployment down and wages up means a higher demand for workers, in turn making America a more attractive destination for those looking for work and a safe place to live.
   And that is a basic principle of Economics 101, the Law of Supply and Demand.

No comments:

Post a Comment